Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects

Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Kupiainen, K.; Klimont, Z.; Makkonen, R.; Korhonen, H.; Karinkanta, R.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Karvosenoja, N.; Laaksonen, A.; Lihavainen, H.; Kerminen, V.-M.
December 2014
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Discussions;2014, Vol. 14 Issue 23, p31899
Academic Journal
The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ is used to study the aerosol burden and forcing changes in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios are applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the results are compared against reference year 2005. Two of the scenarios are based on current legislation reductions, one shows the maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical measures, and the last one is targeted to short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). We have analysed the results in terms of global means and additionally focused on 8 sub-regions. Based on our results, aerosol burdens overall show decreasing trend, but in some locations, such as India, the burdens could increase significantly. This has impact on the direct aerosol effect (DRE), which could reduce globally 0.06-0.4 W m-2 by 2030, but can increase over India (up to 0.84 W m-2). The global values depend on the scenario and are lowest with the targeted SLCF simulation. The cloud radiative effect could decline 0.25-0.82 Wm-2 by 2030 and occurs mostly over oceans, whereas the DRE effect is mostly over land. Our results show that targeted emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due to the radiative effects associated with aerosol-cloud interactions.


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