TITLE

Estimating Onsets of Binary Events in Panel Data

AUTHOR(S)
McGrath, Liam F.
PUB. DATE
October 2015
SOURCE
Political Analysis;Autumn2015, Vol. 23 Issue 4, p534
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Onsets of binary events are often of interest to political scientists, whether they be regime changes, the occurrence of civil war, or the signing of bilateral agreements, to name a few. Often researchers transform the binary event outcome of interest, by setting ongoing years to zero, to create a variable which measures the onset of the event. While this may seem an intuitive way to go about estimating models where onset is the outcome of interest, it results in two problems that can affect substantive inferences. First, it creates two qualitatively different meanings for a unit time period to have a zero, which estimators are unable to "know." Second, it ignores the possibility that variables may have differing effects upon binary event onsets and durations. This article explores how much this transformation can harm our substantive inferences by analytically demonstrating the resulting bias and the use of Monte Carlo experiments, as well as offering recommendations to avoid these problems. I also conduct a sensitivity analysis on the determinants of civil war onset to examine how substantive inferences are affected by this issue. In doing so, I find that there is considerable difference in the size of estimated coefficients and whether a variable is considered a robust determinant of civil war.
ACCESSION #
110270183

 

Related Articles

  • Monte Carlo Simulation in Thermal Radiative Transfer: Method Review, Validation and Parameter Sensitivity. Koreshi, Zafar U.; Siddiq, Sadaf; Shah, Tasneem M. // International Journal of Mechanical & Mechatronics Engineering;Oct2009, Vol. 9 Issue 9, p221 

    Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is extensively used for solving thermal radiation problems in high-temperature environments, such as combustion chambers and furnaces, and irregular-geometry enclosures containing participative media such as combustive gases. The quantities of interest are surface...

  • Regional frequency analysis of heavy precipitation in the Czech Republic by improved region-of-influence method. Gaál, L.; Kyselý, J. // Hydrology & Earth System Sciences Discussions;2009, Vol. 6 Issue 1, p273 

    The region-of-influence (ROI) approach is implemented for modelling the probabilities of heavy 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts in the Czech Republic. Compared to the previous study for Slovakia (Gaál et al., 2008), an improved ROI methodology that makes use of a regional homogeneity...

  • Randomization tests for ABAB designs: Comparing-data-division specific and common distributions. Manolov, Rumen; Solanas, Antonio // Psicothema;may2008, Vol. 20 Issue 2, p297 

    Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate data for ABAB designs of different lengths. The points of change in phase are randomly determined before gathering behaviour measurements, which allows the use of a randomization test as an analytic technique. Data simulation and analysis can be...

  • Catch-at-age assessment in the face of time-varying selectivity. Linton, Brian C.; Bence, James R. // ICES Journal of Marine Science / Journal du Conseil;Mar2011, Vol. 68 Issue 3, p611 

    Linton, B. C., and Bence, J. R. 2011. Catch-at-age assessment in the face of time-varying selectivity. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: .Age-based fishery selectivity represents the relative vulnerability of specific ages of fish to a fishery, whereby age classes that are highly...

  • A Method to Estimate In Situ Block Size Distribution. Elmouttie, M.; Poropat, G. // Rock Mechanics & Rock Engineering;May2012, Vol. 45 Issue 3, p401 

    This paper presents a new technique for estimating the in situ block size distribution in a jointed rock mass. The technique is based on Monte Carlo simulations using more realistic fracture geometry as its input compared to other block size estimation methods described in the literature. This...

  • Influence of solvent quality on polymer solutions: A Monte Carlo study of bulk and interfacial properties. Addison, C. I.; Louis, A. A.; Hansen, J. P. // Journal of Chemical Physics;7/1/2004, Vol. 121 Issue 1, p612 

    The effect of solvent quality on dilute and semidilute regimes of polymers in solution is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The equation of state, adsorption near a hard wall, wall–polymer surface tension, and effective depletion potential are all calculated as a function of...

  • Does cross validation provide additional information in the evaluation of regression models? Kozak, Antal; Kozak, Robert // Canadian Journal of Forest Research;Jun2003, Vol. 33 Issue 6, p976 

    Focuses on the practical utility of data splitting or cross validation in regression model development using tree volume estimating models and a height-diameter model. Application of Monte Carlo simulations; Procedures available for the validation of regression models; Evaluation of the ability...

  • Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes. Mayoral, Laura // Econometrics Journal;Mar2007, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p124 

    A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator is easy to compute and is consistent...

  • The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system. Ades, M.; van Leeuwen, P. J. // Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society;Jan2015, Vol. 141 Issue 687, p484 

    In general, particle filters need large numbers of model runs in order to avoid filter degeneracy in high-dimensional systems. The recently proposed, fully nonlinear equivalent-weights particle filter overcomes this requirement by replacing the standard model transition density with two...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics