Hauser, Philip M.; Tepping, Benjamin J.
October 1944
American Sociological Review;Oct44, Vol. 9 Issue 5, p473
Academic Journal
The measurement of wartime population shifts and the determination of their postwar performance are of interest to a wide variety of persons and agencies in government, business and education. The Bureau of the Census (BOC) has dealt with the first of these problems in making available estimates of the civilian population and metropolitan areas. It is the dual purpose of this paper to study the reliability and validity of the Census Bureau's postcensal population estimates and to evaluate the unofficial postwar population predictions to which reference has been made. BOC has prepared postcensal population estimates largely on the basis of the registrations for War Ration Books One and Two. The article concludes that the unofficial predictions made of the postwar population may be regarded as at least a reasonable first approximation of the answer to the question of permanent shifts of the wartime population. In general, it may be stated that persons concerned with the data for all or a large proportion of the areas may use them with considerable confidence.


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