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January 2006
Risk Management (00355593);Jan2006, Vol. 53 Issue 1, p8
Trade Publication
This article discusses role of information aggregation in the creation of methodologies for making predictions about the future behavior of market trends ranging from the likelihood of terrorist attacks to employment rates to political outcomes. The increasing ability of the markets to predict the trends is driven by the growth of formal markets that allow individuals to place bets on the likelihood of the occurrence of a certain event. Critics predicted that because of the trend, market-information system may eventually replace more traditional predictive models.


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