TITLE

Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming

AUTHOR(S)
Stott, Peter A.; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.
PUB. DATE
February 2008
SOURCE
Tellus: Series B;Feb2008, Vol. 60 Issue 1, p76
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
If cooling due to present-day levels of atmospheric aerosol is suppressing global temperatures, future reductions in aerosols emissions would allow the full greenhouse gas induced warming to be realised. The many uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry mean that a large range of present-day aerosol cooling is possible which could imply a large climate sensitivity, extremely large future warming and the increased risk of catastrophic consequences. Despite large uncertainties in aerosol physics and chemistry, observed spatial and temporal patterns of past temperature change allow quantitative assessment of the strength of present-day aerosol cooling. Such observational constraints provide a probabilistic framework in which to assess the likelihood of extremely large warming if a very large suppression of global warming by aerosols were to be removed. The likelihoods of future warming extents are calculated assuming four scenarios of future anthropogenic emissions. While such results are still subject to uncertainty, they indicate that future warming by the end of the 21st century is likely to be between the extremes implied by very strong or very weak present-day aerosol cooling. It is very likely that present-day aerosol cooling is suppressing a major portion of current greenhouse warming.
ACCESSION #
28326580

 

Related Articles

  • A Multimodel Update on the Detection and Attribution of Global Surface Warming. Stone, Dáithí A.; Allen, Myles R.; Stott, Peter A. // Journal of Climate;Feb2007, Vol. 20 Issue 3, p517 

    This paper presents an update on the detection and attribution of global annual mean surface air temperature changes, using recently developed climate models. In particular, it applies a new methodology that permits the inclusion of many more general circulation models (GCMs) into the analysis,...

  • Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response. Paeth, Heiko; Feichter, Johann // Climate Dynamics;Jan2006, Vol. 26 Issue 1, p35 

    There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of aerosols arises from biomass burning,...

  • Climate Change Challenges. Grassl, Hartmut // Surveys in Geophysics;Sep2011, Vol. 32 Issue 4/5, p319 

    Anthropogenic climate change has emerged as one of the major challenges for mankind in the centuries to come. The strongly modified composition of the atmosphere, due to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol particles, leads to an enhanced greenhouse effect and also intensified...

  • Two hundred fifty years of aerosols and climate: the end of the age of aerosols. Smith, S. J.; Bond, T. C. // Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics;2014, Vol. 14 Issue 2, p537 

    Carbonaceous and sulfur aerosols have a substantial global and regional influence on climate, resulting in a net cooling to date, in addition to their impact on health and ecosystems. The magnitude of this influence has changed substantially over the past and is expected to continue to change...

  • Climate change: A global issue. Singh, Hambir // Chemical Business;Feb2010, Vol. 24 Issue 2, p42 

    Arising emissions of greenhouse gases are result of the combustion of fossil fuels in the anthropogenic activities, deforestation and some natural phenomenon which are responsible for global warming as well as climate change. Global warming and climate change events ere responsible for the...

  • Global Warming Potential Implications and Methodological Challenges of Road Transport Emissions in Nigeria. Nwanya, S. C.; Offili, I. // Energy & Environment Research;Jun2013, Vol. 3 Issue 1, p169 

    The purpose of this study is to examine the repercussions vehicular road transport emissions have on global warming potential (GWP), and the need to address the issue considering methodological challenges facing road transportation in Nigeria. Specific objectives of the study includes to...

  • Do you really believe in climate change? Marshall, George // New Scientist;7/25/2009, Vol. 203 Issue 2718, p24 

    The author reflects on the need to alter people's behavior in addressing climate change. He points out that information is not enough in generating change in greenhouse gas emissions. He criticizes the notion that rejection of climate change research is caused by media distortion or scientific...

  • A mirror to cool the world. Pearce, Fred // New Scientist;3/27/2004, Vol. 181 Issue 2440, p26 

    The engineers who brought us cloud seeding and plans to warm Siberia by melting the Arctic now say they can stave off global warming by shading the planet with tiny metal balloons or burying greenhouse gas on the ocean floor. And climate scientists, depressed by the failure of politicians to cut...

  • Companies Confront Climate Change. Hobson, Margaret Kriz // Environmental Forum;Jan/Feb2012, Vol. 29 Issue 1, p8 

    The article focuses on the increase in the number of business executives calling the federal government in the U.S. to control greenhouse gas emissions and to help communities cope with rising sea levels and severe storms. The author talks about studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on...

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics