Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections

Fair, Ray C.
April 2009
Journal of Politics;Apr2009, Vol. 71 Issue 2, p612
Academic Journal
This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists on election morning as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets provide a way of trying to estimate this uncertainty. This type of uncertainty is different from polling standard errors, which estimate sample-size uncertainty. This paper also introduces a ranking assumption concerning dependencies across U.S. states. The assumption does well when tested using data for the 2004 presidential election and the 2006 Senate election. It is shown that if the ranking assumption is correct, the two political parties should spend all their money on a few states, which seems consistent with their actual behavior in 2004.


Related Articles

  • The Irrational Electorate. Bartels, Larry M. // Wilson Quarterly;Autumn2008, Vol. 32 Issue 4, p44 

    The article reports on the irrationality of U.S. voters. An overview of political science research on voter choice and motivation is provided. The author suggests that electoral choices made by uninformed voters are not based on policy issues and positions. Other topic include political...

  • USTAVNI POLOŽAJ VLADE U PARLAMENTARNOM SISTEMU VLASTI. Sandra, Pajic Savija // Business Studies / Poslovne Studje;2014, Vol. 6 Issue 11/12, p243 

    The parliamentary system is based on two assumptions. On the one hand, it is the political responsibility of the government to the parliament, on the other hand, governments also affect parliaments through the right of legislative initiative and the right of dissolving the parliament. The...

  • GADGET OF THE MONTH.  // American Speaker;Jun2010, p3 

    The article evaluates the interactive application called Poll Everywhere.

  • The road to power: partisan loyalty and the centralized provision of local infrastructure. Joanis, Marcelin // Public Choice;Jan2011, Vol. 146 Issue 1/2, p117 

    This paper sets out a simple dynamic probabilistic voting model in which a government allocates a fixed budget across electoral districts that differ in their loyalties to the ruling party. The model predicts that the geographic pattern of spending depends on the way the government balances...

  • Bringing the President Back In: The Collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Evolution of Retrospective Voting in the 2008 Presidential Election. Holbrook, Thomas M.; Clouse, Clayton; Weinschenk, Aaron C. // Political Research Quarterly;Jun2012, Vol. 65 Issue 2, p263 

    Despite prevailing negative conditions, initial analyses of the 2008 presidential election, including this one, find significant but not particularly strong economic voting effects during the fall campaign. In this article, the authors pay special attention to how the economic information...

  • What have we gained listening to politicians? Sowell, Thomas // Human Events;12/29/95, Vol. 51 Issue 50, p14 

    Discusses the notion that blunders in decision-making could always be explained away by politicians. Politics as the grand arena for creating images, emotions and plausible notions; Art of manipulating statistics; Attribution of mistakes to other factors; Testing of ideas with real-world...

  • The Week. Hart // BMJ: British Medical Journal (International Edition);5/2/92, Vol. 304 Issue 6835, p1136 

    Focuses on science activities in Great Britain. Responsibility of the Department of Education and Science for the science budget and research; Appointment of minister to represent science; Creation of responsibility from the government to cut across departmental boundaries.

  • Just how ethical are our professionals?  // Caribbean Business;12/7/2006, Vol. 34 Issue 48, p12 

    The article reports on the several opinions regarding the result of the poll that evaluates ethical and honest behavior of various professions in Puerto Rico. Mike Nolla, a retail consultant, comments on the leadership of the younger generations in the country. Alexandra Carlo, director of...

  • Survey says...  // Las Vegas Business Press;03/23/98, Vol. 15 Issue 12, p3 

    Reveals some of the findings of a survey conducted by the Canon Center for Survey Research-University of Nevada, Las Vegas Metropolitan Poll, which focused on various issues relating to Las Vegas, Nevada. Perception about limiting growth in Las Vegas; Opinion on school uniforms; Confidence...


Read the Article


Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics