Dilemas de estrategia: ¿Tierra o aire? Redes sociales y decisión electoral

Valdivia, Marcos; Beltrán, Ulises
January 2009
Política y Gobierno;ene2009 supplement, p177
Academic Journal
In all election, parties and candidates face a clear dilemma on how to invest their communicational resources: either on air (mass media) or on land (direct contact on social networks). Each of the two main contenders of the 2006 elections centered its efforts in one of these possibilities. pan used mass media, while PRD invested in social networks until the first presidential debate, and afterwards turned towards the extensive use of radio and television ads. This article seeks to evaluate how effective were the campaigns of both parties. Based on a multilevel logistic model, we find that the social networks had a significant impact on the preference for the PRD candidate. This impact varied according to the initial preferences for the PRD candidate in the electoral precinct. We find no evidence, however, that communicating with neighbors or the social networks effect had a direct influence for the pan candidate.


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