TITLE

Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

AUTHOR(S)
Apivatanagul, Pruttipong; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda
PUB. DATE
February 2012
SOURCE
Natural Hazards;Feb2012, Vol. 60 Issue 2, p567
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan's performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.
ACCESSION #
69806659

 

Related Articles

  • INSURRECTION. Lemann, Nicholas // New Yorker;9/26/2005, Vol. 81 Issue 29, p67 

    Comments on the political issues surrounding the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans, Louisiana in September 2005. Recognition of the shortcomings of the government in terms of the evacuation of New Orleans residents; Question of deploying federal troops to the South;...

  • Project H.E.R.O.: Hurricane Evacuation Route Optimization. Gossett, Nathan; Hess, Barbara; Page, Michael // UMAP Journal;Fall2001, Vol. 22 Issue 3, p257 

    The article presents a study for the creation of a mathematical model to investigate potential strategies for the evacuation of Charleston, South Carolina during 1999's Hurricane Floyd. Nine evacuation routes running from the coastal region inland are derived in the study. Counties are given...

  • Are we better off New Orleans? Hatfield, David // Inside Tucson Business;9/12/2005, Vol. 15 Issue 13, p4 

    Comments on the failure of the city government to make an immediate response to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, Louisiana. Timeliness of the evacuation order of the government; Doubt over the whereabouts of officials upon the occurrence of the disaster; Delay of the relief...

  • THE KATRINA DIASPORA. Somerstein, Rachel // Next American City;Fall2010, Issue 28, p18 

    The article discusses the Houston, Texas situation in 2010 with regards to the evacuation there of 250,000 people from New Orleans, Louisiana to escape Hurricane Katrina in 2005. People reportedly remained in Houston by choice or default due to financial and rebuilding difficulties in their old...

  • Hurricane Hubris. Perlman, Ellen // Governing;Jun2005, Vol. 18 Issue 9, p68 

    Highlights a study on the difficulties faced by U.S. emergency officials in evacuating residents from the path of a storm. Reasons why respondents did not evacuate when Hurricane Ivan hit their area; Reason why it is difficult for officials to persuade residents to leave in the crucial hours...

  • Needed: Help, not hassles. Hyatt, John T. // Journal of Commerce (1542-3867);10/10/2005, Vol. 6 Issue 41, p42 

    Presents a narrative of the author's experience of being evacuated from New Orleans, Louisiana because of Hurricane Katrina. Number of days spent by the author to be transferred to Superdome; Efforts made to save himself and his wife; Reason for not returning to New Orleans.

  • Silver-lined Storm: The Impact of the 1919 Hurricane on the Port of Corpus Christi. O'Rear, Mary Jo // Southwestern Historical Quarterly;Jan2005, Vol. 108 Issue 3, p312 

    Discusses the impact of a hurricane that hit the unprotected coastal city of Corpus Christi, Texas on September 14, 1919. Evacuation of families due to the rising tides; Official warning announced by meteorologist Charles Heckathorn warning families in exposed places to seek safety; Destruction...

  • Blowin' in the Wind. Wagner, Mark; Kopp, Kenneth; Kolasa, William E. // UMAP Journal;Fall2001, Vol. 22 Issue 3, p311 

    The article presents information on a mathematical model to determine the optimal evacuation plan for coastal South Carolina in the event of a large hurricane. Since traffic from each coastal population center interferes little with traffic flowing from other areas being evacuated, a staggered...

  • Louisiana Exodus. O'Connor, Terry // New Orleans CityBusiness (1994 to 2008);9/5/2005, Vol. 26 Issue 9, p1 

    Focuses on the problems confronting the victims of Hurricane Katrina during their evacuation from New Orleans, Louisiana. Prevalence of evacuees faced with financial crisis; Extent of looting in the city; Concern over job prospects following the recovery.

Share

Read the Article

Courtesy of THE LIBRARY OF VIRGINIA

Sorry, but this item is not currently available from your library.

Try another library?
Sign out of this library

Other Topics