TITLE

Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

AUTHOR(S)
Tol, Richard
PUB. DATE
April 2013
SOURCE
Climatic Change;Apr2013, Vol. 117 Issue 4, p961
SOURCE TYPE
Academic Journal
DOC. TYPE
Article
ABSTRACT
The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios.
ACCESSION #
85986608

 

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