Long-Run Price Elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Egypt-EU Commodity Trade

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Hosny, Amr Sadek
December 2013
European Journal of Development Research;Dec2013, Vol. 25 Issue 5, p695
Academic Journal
Une dévaluation ou dépréciation monétaire est censée améliorer la balance commerciale d′un pays à long terme si la condition de Marshall-Lerner est satisfaite. S′appuyant sur des données agrégées sur le commerce entre un pays et le reste du monde, ou entre deux pays, au niveau bilatéral, des recherches antérieures, qui ont cherché à évaluer la validité empirique de cette condition, ont fourni des résultats contrastés. Il est dit que les deux groupes souffrent d′un biais d′agrégation. Pour corriger ce biais, nous ventilons les données du commerce entre deux régions, l′Égypte et l′UE, et procédons à une estimation de la condition au niveau de produits issus de 59 secteurs et faisant l′objet d′échanges commerciaux entre les deux régions. Les résultats montrent que la condition est remplie pour 39 secteurs. Parmi ces 39 secteurs on trouve des petites et grandes industries, certaines bénéficiant d′un avantage comparatif, d′autres souffrant d′un désavantage.


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