Chapter 5: Oil Scenario Tests

October 2005
Turkey Business Forecast Report;2005 Quarter4, p36
Country Report
Country Report
The article informs about a scenario test on impact of increase of oil price on the world economy. An increase in the oil price would have a major impact on the world economy, according to the model-based scenario test. Growth in the world economy would be significantly lower, inflation would be higher, while the main industrial economies would also experience a deterioration in their current accounts. The results suggest that the recent increase in the oil price is a major risk factor for the global economy, and policymakers are right to be concerned about the impact of a permanently higher oil price, and should be looking at ways of improving their energy efficiency.


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